Jokowi, and a number of his key ministers, including Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indratwati and Trade Minister Enggartiasto Lukita, would prefer to maintain good relations with their southern neighbour, and give the Indonesian government's economic credentials a boost in financial markets by getting the FTA signed. But if the President has to "throw Morrison under a bus" in order to preserve his conservative Islam support base, the President would, albeit reluctantly, sacrifice the deal with Australia. After all, Indonesia has usually looked north for its major business and trade opportunities; not south.
The response from Indonesia's opposition and conservative factions will therefore determine the President's official position on Australia's new policy, and that is the ever-present danger that Australia will now face.
Indonesia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has yesterday released a measured response to the decision by Australia but it is hard to see IA-CEPA being signed soon as some ministers would like. If both governments do agree to proceed with the signing of this free trade agreement, the chances of it being ratified in the Indonesian Parliament at this stage appears very slim. So business groups will need to "just get on with business" as they have always done, despite the bumps that inevitably occur between neighbours.
Just how Indonesia will respond to the Australian government's new policy remains to be seen. Almost certainly there will be anti-Australian protests, but whether Indonesia will announce a more severe response is unknown at this stage. A number of senior Indonesian ministers and officials will still want the IA-CEPA signed and the bilateral relationship maintained on a good footing, but how to do this without alienating the powerful conservative Islamic groups?
What we do know, is that the conservatives in Australia will react to any anti-Australian protests from Jakarta with a call for us to reject interference from Indonesia. Yet, none of this needed to have happened with a more considered and better timed dialogue with Indonesian officials before any announcement was originally made, and as such avoiding doing even further damage to the bilateral relationship at a critical time in our region for both Australia and Indonesia.
Ross B Taylor AM is the President of the Perth-based Indonesia Institute Inc.
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